Who is really being terrorised on our transport networks on a daily basis? Is it tube or bus passengers worried that somebody may be plotting to blow them up? Hardly – our public transport network continues to enjoy record numbers, especially in London. Are there some people who are put off from using public transport because of fears over social safety? Of course there are, just as there are some people who don’t like walking down dark alley ways at night.
Yet across all transport modes, there is only one which has widely available courses to conquer the fear from using it – and that of course is aviation. Fear of flying affects between 15 and 20% of the population according to surveys undertaken by fear of flying course providers, who in turn often claim success rates of above 90%. Fear of flying is entirely reasonable (ie it is natural to fear the impacts of being confined in a long thin tube), but it is also entirely irrational in terms of the statistical risk, which is minimal. Dare I say it, and bring out the big bad “t” word – the statistical risk of terrorism is also minimal, however much our tabloids like to warn of the impending doom. Although there was some evidence of mode shift around the 2005 London attacks, this was often due to disruption as much as the fear from another attack.
On the other hand, fear of cycling isn’t just completely rational and normal, it is also wide spread. Why don’t people cycle when they otherwise might? In other words, if people could otherwise make a relatively short journey without taking a very heavy load and in reasonable weather conditions, why don’t they? We know that a city like Maastricht is very similar geographically ot a city like Coventry, but in the former, around 27% of journeys are by bike, in the latter just 2.7% So 90% of potential bike journeys just aren’t taking place. Remember that these are journeys which would otherwise be likely to take place by bike, this 90% is a percentage of these potential journeys, not a percentage of all journeys. For the record, Maastricht has rolling terrain, just like Coventry, and it has an infrastructure network which is relatively poor and dated by Dutch standards, and no major rail network.
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